150K Before WOA 2010

[xforeverxmetalx]

well being in cars in general. Let us assume car accidents happen at rate lambda, so we have a poisson distribution, hence probability of a car accident happening between occurences increases exponentially as you drive.

why would it be exponential?

 

[Zombi]

why would it be exponential?

if they occur at a certain rate, the probability of the length of time between occurences being longer than that rate increases exponentially.

 

[Zombi]

if they occur at a certain rate, the probability of the length of time between occurences being longer than that rate increases exponentially.

of course, this doesn't really apply to a single driver (unless you actually have accidents yourself at a certain rate). but in general, it all feels very dangerous to me.

 

[Deathbringer]

if they occur at a certain rate, the probability of the length of time between occurences being longer than that rate increases exponentially.

I heard most accidents occur mostly within 10 miles at home

All of the accidents I've been involved in were always the short drives.

 

[xforeverxmetalx]

if they occur at a certain rate, the probability of the length of time between occurences being longer than that rate increases exponentially.

dunno... I'd put that on a linear scale...

 

[xforeverxmetalx]

I heard most accidents occur mostly within 10 miles at home

All of the accidents I've been involved in were always the short drives.

2/3 of mine were at least 45mins away from home

 

[xforeverxmetalx]

true though, I've heard it's usually 10mins

 

[Zombi]

dunno... I'd put that on a linear scale...

sorry what I meant to say is

if they occur at a certain rate, the probability of the length of time between occurences being longer than that rate decreases exponentially.

in other words, if they occur at a certain rate, the probability of an accident occuring increases exponentially as the length of time until the that occurence happens increases.

 

[xforeverxmetalx]

sorry what I meant to say is

if they occur at a certain rate, the probability of the length of time between occurences being longer than that rate decreases exponentially.

in other words, if they occur at a certain rate, the probability of an accident occuring increases exponentially as the length of time until the that occurence happens increases.

I see what you're saying... I just would put that on a linear model as far as, I don't think they'd get any more likely the longer you go, or less likely, but rather you're more likely for it to happen if you go along time just because then there's more of a chance

 

[Zombi]

I see what you're saying... I just would put that on a linear model as far as, I don't think they'd get any more likely the longer you go, or less likely, but rather you're more likely for it to happen if you go along time just because then there's more of a chance

yes. but it's not a linear model. it definately is exponential. if the rate is constant, then the waiting time until the next event decreases exponentially, so the probability of it occuring increases exponentially.

hm. now I feel like proving this, but I think I've done enough work today.

 

[Quark]

sorry what I meant to say is

if they occur at a certain rate, the probability of the length of time between occurences being longer than that rate decreases exponentially.

in other words, if they occur at a certain rate, the probability of an accident occuring increases exponentially as the length of time until the that occurence happens increases.

This jibbejabbing leaves me but one solution.
Avoid cars!

 

[Quark]

yes. but it's not a linear model. it definately is exponential. if the rate is constant, then the waiting time until the next event decreases exponentially, so the probability of it occuring increases exponentially.

hm. now I feel like proving this, but I think I've done enough work today.

Well, if you allow me, I come to a simple conclusion.

ONE fool is enough to cause a (car) accident.

 

[xforeverxmetalx]

yes. but it's not a linear model. it definately is exponential. if the rate is constant, then the waiting time until the next event decreases exponentially, so the probability of it occuring increases exponentially.

hm. now I feel like proving this, but I think I've done enough work today.

too bad, then I could tell my parents I was studying for my math final

 

[Zombi]

ONE fool is enough to cause a (car) accident.

yes. this sums up my dislike of driving in a non-mathematical way. Sorry, once you start studying and loving maths, you can never get it out of your head.

 

[xforeverxmetalx]

This jibbejabbing leaves me but one solution.
Avoid cars!

flying's by far safer, but you avoid that too